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目 錄
第一部分 航空研制項目管理
第一章 航空研制項目管理概述·································································.2
1.1 我國航空研制項目管理發(fā)展歷程····················································.2
1.2 國外航空研制項目管理發(fā)展歷程····················································.4
1.2.1 美國···············································································.4
1.2.2 歐洲···············································································.6
1.3 航空研制項目的分類與特征··························································.7
1.3.1 項目分類·········································································.7
1.3.2 項目特征·········································································.9
第二章 項目進度與成本管理理論·····························································.12
2.1 項目進度管理············································································.12
2.1.1 進度管理概念··································································.12
2.1.2 航空研制項目進度管理特點················································.13
2.1.3 進度計劃方法與工具·························································.14
2.2 項目成本管理············································································.17
2.2.1 成本管理概念··································································.17
2.2.2 成本管理的方法與工具······················································.18
2.3 掙值分析法···············································································.24
2.3.1 關鍵性能指標··································································.24
2.3.2 指標分析········································································.24
第二部分 進度與成本數(shù)智化管控體系與流程
第三章 數(shù)智化管控體系設計···································································.28
3.1 數(shù)智化管控體系架構··································································.29
3.1.1 設計目標與思路·······························································.29
3.1.2 管控體系架構設計····························································.30
3.2 基礎功能模塊介紹·····································································.32
3.2.1 工作分解結構··································································.32
3.2.2 績效控制賬戶設置····························································.33
3.2.3 績效基線評審··································································.33
3.2.4 成本模型構建··································································.34
3.2.5 綜合主進度計劃制定·························································.34
3.3 核心功能模塊介紹·····································································.35
3.3.1 掙值管理工具包·······························································.35
3.3.2 績效評估與預測·······························································.35
3.3.3 偏差分析與預警·······························································.36
3.3.4 外協(xié)子項目績效管控·························································.38
3.4 部門及人員的角色與責任····························································.38
第四章 績效控制賬戶設置······································································.42
4.1 績效控制賬戶的設置··································································.42
4.2 工作任務分解············································································.44
4.3 工作任務與組織分解的集成·························································.46
4.4 績效控制賬戶授權·····································································.48
第五章 進度計劃與狀態(tài)監(jiān)測···································································.49
5.1 進度計劃制定與狀態(tài)更新概述······················································.49
5.2 進度計劃制定············································································.52
5.2.1 不同層級進度計劃····························································.53
5.2.2 進度計劃評估··································································.54
5.3 進度狀態(tài)監(jiān)測············································································.56
5.3.1 進度績效設置··································································.56
5.3.2 進度狀態(tài)測量··································································.57
第六章 成本計劃與狀態(tài)監(jiān)測···································································.60
6.1 成本基線制定與狀態(tài)監(jiān)測流程概述················································.60
6.2 成本基線制定············································································.64
6.2.1 控制賬戶成本計劃····························································.64
6.2.2 預算基線········································································.65
6.3 成本狀態(tài)監(jiān)測············································································.65
6.3.1 財務系統(tǒng)的擴展·······························································.65
6.3.2 成本數(shù)據(jù)的收集與記錄······················································.66
6.3.3 基于WBS 的成本歸集·······················································.67
6.3.4 基于控制賬戶的成本歸集···················································.67
6.3.5 成本數(shù)據(jù)轉換系統(tǒng)····························································.68
6.3.6 成本數(shù)據(jù)對賬··································································.68
第七章 進度與成本狀態(tài)分析與預測··························································.69
7.1 進度與成本狀態(tài)分析··································································.69
7.1.1 狀態(tài)分析報告··································································.69
7.1.2 狀態(tài)分析流程··································································.70
7.1.3 狀態(tài)分析步驟··································································.72
7.2 進度與成本狀態(tài)預測··································································.77
7.2.1 進度與成本狀態(tài)預測流程···················································.77
7.2.2 完工估算········································································.78
7.2.3 控制賬戶完工估算類型······················································.79
7.2.4 全面完工估算··································································.80
7.2.5 常規(guī)完工估算··································································.81
第三部分 智能管控模型與算法
第八章 項目進度與成本狀態(tài)預測模型·······················································.84
8.1 系統(tǒng)動力學模型········································································.84
8.2 AnyLogic 仿真軟件·····································································.85
8.3 控制賬戶績效狀態(tài)預測模型·························································.86
8.3.1 理論模型構建··································································.86
8.3.2 AnyLogic 仿真模型實現(xiàn)····················································.88
8.4 項目整體績效狀態(tài)預測·······························································.90
8.4.1 控制賬戶前后搭接關系建�！ぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁ�.90
8.4.2 基于網(wǎng)絡計劃圖的項目整體績效預測····································.90
8.5 仿真測試與分析········································································.93
8.5.1 案例項目與測試數(shù)據(jù)·························································.93
8.5.2 單控制賬戶績效預測·························································.93
8.5.3 項目進度與成本績效預測···················································.96
第九章 基于多智能體強化學習的項目績效動態(tài)控制···································.101
9.1 多智能體與強化學習概述··························································.101
9.2 項目多控制賬戶績效動態(tài)控制····················································.102
9.2.1 問題描述······································································.102
9.2.2 控制賬戶的馬爾可夫決策過程···········································.103
9.2.3 項目整體的控制過程·······················································.104
9.3 多智能體強化學習算法·····························································.106
9.4 實驗測試與分析········································································111
參考文獻······························································································116